Traffic counts point to 6.3% reduction on boundary roads when lockdown restrictions are lifted.
Hackney Council have released data on the motor vehicle levels in and around the London Fields LTN. The results show that motor traffic has decreased in the LTN and on boundary roads.
However, the data were collected during a national lockdown. This page seeks to show the likely impact on the traffic on the roads, taking into account the impact of the lockdown. The tables below adds in the benchmarked data [i]. For example, the report found that levels of urban motor traffic decreased by 16%, so the table adds 16% back into the results for each road for this benchmark. The tables makes the results more clear: on average, LTN boundary roads have seen a bigger decrease in traffic than both national urban traffic and borough-wide traffic.
Results:
Main Roads
This page attempts to forecast whether traffic will increase or decrease on the roads listed when lockdown is lifted. The data were collected in November 2020, during a national lockdown, and so motor traffic nationally was depressed, as stated clearly in Hackney Council's report:
However, the data were collected during a national lockdown. This page seeks to show the likely impact on the traffic on the roads, taking into account the impact of the lockdown. The tables below adds in the benchmarked data [i]. For example, the report found that levels of urban motor traffic decreased by 16%, so the table adds 16% back into the results for each road for this benchmark. The tables makes the results more clear: on average, LTN boundary roads have seen a bigger decrease in traffic than both national urban traffic and borough-wide traffic.
Results:
Main Roads
This page attempts to forecast whether traffic will increase or decrease on the roads listed when lockdown is lifted. The data were collected in November 2020, during a national lockdown, and so motor traffic nationally was depressed, as stated clearly in Hackney Council's report:
The first column is the data released by Hackney, showing a decrease on the main roads in the London Fields area of between 12.9% and 27.5%.
To get an idea of how this may look when lockdown eases, we can add in the figures in Figure 1 back onto the reductions seen on the individual roads - as we've done in Table B. Once we take into account the benchmarked data, two of the three roads can expect to see a decrease in traffic volume if traffic was to return to 2019 patterns nationally. Kingsland Road may be expected to see a slight increase of around 2%.
To get an idea of how this may look when lockdown eases, we can add in the figures in Figure 1 back onto the reductions seen on the individual roads - as we've done in Table B. Once we take into account the benchmarked data, two of the three roads can expect to see a decrease in traffic volume if traffic was to return to 2019 patterns nationally. Kingsland Road may be expected to see a slight increase of around 2%.
Boundary Roads
Table C does the same, but looks at the boundary roads of the LTN. These are the roads that the main concerns about possible displacement from the LTN roads, and so these are the roads that of most interest.
The results are very positive for the impact of the LTN. The data does suggest that Graham Road west of Mare Street and the A10 with Richmond Road would see a modest increase of 3% and 2.1% respectively.
However, Dalston Lane, Queensbridge Road, Whiston Road and Mare Street have seen decreases in motor traffic volume bigger than the national urban decreases, bigger than the A12, and bigger than the Borough-wide counts. These roads seem to be in line for an overall decrease in motor traffic even once lockdown eases.
In other words, of the seven roads for which we have data, the LTN has led to a modest increase in two of the boundary roads, and more significant decreases on five boundary roads, resulting in an overall 6.3% reduction in traffic volume against benchmark.
Table C does the same, but looks at the boundary roads of the LTN. These are the roads that the main concerns about possible displacement from the LTN roads, and so these are the roads that of most interest.
The results are very positive for the impact of the LTN. The data does suggest that Graham Road west of Mare Street and the A10 with Richmond Road would see a modest increase of 3% and 2.1% respectively.
However, Dalston Lane, Queensbridge Road, Whiston Road and Mare Street have seen decreases in motor traffic volume bigger than the national urban decreases, bigger than the A12, and bigger than the Borough-wide counts. These roads seem to be in line for an overall decrease in motor traffic even once lockdown eases.
In other words, of the seven roads for which we have data, the LTN has led to a modest increase in two of the boundary roads, and more significant decreases on five boundary roads, resulting in an overall 6.3% reduction in traffic volume against benchmark.
Within the LTN
Looking only at roads within the LTN, motor traffic volumes have decreased, as would be expected. However, the levels of drop on some of the roads does give one pause for thought. Richmond Road has seen 90%+ reduction in motor traffic. Even when we add in the benchmark from 2019 to go back to pre-covid measures, the drop would be 75-80%. Presented with data like this, it becomes increasingly difficult to argue that this kind of level of through motor traffic should be tolerated on residential roads.
On the negative side, the increases seen on Laurel Street and Forest Road are brought into sharper focus when the benchmarked data is included, and these streets could see a 50% increase once lockdown restrictions are lifted. These are streets that we have been campaigning to address, and we hope that Hackney Council will use the results to prioritise solutions for these streets.
We would also have liked results for Westgate Street and Lansdowne Drive, as the timed bus gate means that the LTN is only in operation for 7 hours per day, with a huge gap through the LTN for the rest of the day.
Looking only at roads within the LTN, motor traffic volumes have decreased, as would be expected. However, the levels of drop on some of the roads does give one pause for thought. Richmond Road has seen 90%+ reduction in motor traffic. Even when we add in the benchmark from 2019 to go back to pre-covid measures, the drop would be 75-80%. Presented with data like this, it becomes increasingly difficult to argue that this kind of level of through motor traffic should be tolerated on residential roads.
On the negative side, the increases seen on Laurel Street and Forest Road are brought into sharper focus when the benchmarked data is included, and these streets could see a 50% increase once lockdown restrictions are lifted. These are streets that we have been campaigning to address, and we hope that Hackney Council will use the results to prioritise solutions for these streets.
We would also have liked results for Westgate Street and Lansdowne Drive, as the timed bus gate means that the LTN is only in operation for 7 hours per day, with a huge gap through the LTN for the rest of the day.
Pedestrian and cycling traffic
Unfortunately, no data are presented for the numbers of pedestrians and cyclists on these roads. Enabling active travel, and the legion of benefits that greater activity brings to individuals and society, is one of the main benefits of LTNs. So it is a shame that data are not available, especially as they have been measured for the LTNs in nearby Islington (which also reports positive data in their impact on motor-traffic decreases).
Conclusions
The publication of these data was met with the criticism that cries that the data are invalid due to the lockdown. The analysis above highlights the results in a way that incorporates the benchmarks so that it’s clear that the reductions seen in the LTN and on boundary roads is greater than the reduction seen nationally and borough-wide. The analysis makes clear that the data points to a decrease within the LTN (which is of no surprise), and a 6.3% average reduction on boundary roads even when lockdown reductions are lifted, which is a huge surprise for some given the apocalyptic predictions made by some when the LTN was implemented.
The results do point to some streets that require more interventions, which we hope will be addressed as a matter of priority. The main conclusion is that the traffic count results are another positive indication that LTNs do reduce motor traffic use without increasing traffic on boundary roads.
March 2021
Notes:
[1] This analysis uses the available data. It is important to note that of course this analysis does not predict what the traffic volume is going to be in future. The level of motor traffic depends on numerous variances, and people will make different travel decisions based on various factors, so any observed level of motor traffic is never a given. Perhaps everyone will decide to drive everywhere once lockdown restrictions are lifted, and motor traffic levels will increase everywhere. What this analysis does show is that the available data shows that an increase in traffic will not be due to the LTN.
[2] The Average increase used in the tables is the average of averages i.e. a simple average of the other figures in the corresponding row. This figure takes the best guess compared to National, A12 and Borough-wide counts, and so is an average of best guess. This gives equal weight to Borough-wide counts as is given to national counts. However, it does allow us to come up with a single figure that is used as a best guess as to the level of impact on motor traffic level.